Wimbledon Preview

Yeah, i know what you're thinking: didn't we just finish reading daily updates about the French... and now Wimbledon preview already? Well, believe it or not kiddos Wimbledon begins Monday.

The seeding was announced today and of course The Mighty Fed is at number one in the men's draw with Nadal seeded second and Andy Roddick at third. Now after the French, people will likely wonder if Nadal and Federer are on a collision course and if Rafa will now dethrone TMF on grass. Unlikely i say. Why you ask?

(1) Playing on grass is unlike any other surface. Sure clay is extremely unique, but clay and hard court are nearly brothers with grass being their distant third cousin. The footwork required on grass is very different and the game must be played in a very different style. The grinding 20+ shot points that you saw frequently on clay don't happen on grass (well okay, they happen, just not as often). Instead players who excel on grass are in the Pete Sampras model. They serve and get you off balance, then rush the net (we tennis players call this 'serve and volley') and put you away. This doesn't fit with the style of play that Rafa has shown in years past.

(2) Rafa's early exit in his grass tune up to a non-top 25 player (non-top 50 if memory serves me right) doesn't bode well. Can he play on grass? certainly, he made the Wimbledon final last year. However, can he play on grass like TMF can? No. TMF won the final last year despite not playing the way he is capable of on grass. And if TMF should run into Rafa again at Centre Court expect him to be out to prove a point. You get the sense on grass that when Roger wants to embarrass somebody he is more than capable.

(3) I don't think Rafa is Roger's biggest threat. I honestly believe that Roddick poses the biggest threat to TMF here. The second serve is a huge part of playing on grass because the serve dictates play so much more on grass. So a player with a big second like Roddick poses a real threat. (This is why he just won his fourth Queen's Club title.) Rafa is a consistent server, but he lacks that wow factor in the serve that others possess. So why wasn't Roddick at the Wimbledon final last year? Well, remember that Roddick was playing awful tennis this time last year. It wasn't until later in the season when he picked up Jimmy Connors just before the US Open that he turned things around. Roddick is now playing significantly better tennis (just not on clay) and will pose a threat.

So do I think Federer emerges with another Wimbledon title? Yeah, I'm thinking so. The fact that he was comfortable pulling out of his sole grass tune up tells me that Fed's confidence on grass was not shaken. The man knows he can still roll with (read: school) the pack on the Queen's grass, and I look for him to do precisely that beginning Monday.

Go Roger,
-riley.