Okay, steve has ordered me to put together a preview but it will have to be brief (as i literally just returned to my apartment from a brief trip to budapest).
We'll start with the actually playing ability of the two. Both players are incredible, so there's very little that separates them here. I will say that i think that federer overall is a more well rounded player and that his bag of tricks is larger than rafa's one could argue that federer has a more consistent backhand, which has been superb this tournament, and that federer is a bit more adept at the net. however, i think that the edge that federer gets in this department is offset by rafa's comfort level on the red dirt. nadal is more at home than tmf sliding around on the clay, so i think that's a definite advantage for him there. so looking at the actual playing ability/styles of the two, i think we're at a push.
now for the mental factor:
for nadal:
(1) he's on clay; he's comfortable.
(2) he's done this twice before and never lost a match at the roland garros. this is nothing new to him.
(3) there is less pressure on him. he's only trying to win another match... federer is trying to set up a possible grand slam and finish off the career grand slam.
for federer:
(1) the last time they faced, feds won on clay at hamburg. he knows he can do it now and more importantly i think he finally figured out how to do it -- to dictate the play himself rather than waiting for rafa to make mistakes.
(2) he's coming off a grind of a match with davydenko that, while it may have taken a bit of energy out of him, showed him that he can win despite not having his a game. hopefully this is a non-issue today as i expect both players to show up with their a game... but if feds makes a few mistakes early, he knows he can fight through it.
(3) there is more pressure on him. i think federer enjoys this pressure. he knows what he is on the brink of doing, and he wants it more than anybody else (including me) wants him to have it. i think he also realizes that his window to win a french open is shrinking each year, so that will hopefully drive him to go 110% (to use that awful cliche).
so my prediction is what choi wants... honestly, i hesitate to say it but i think roger does it today. rafa doesn't seem like he wants it as badly. maybe he's just staying calm and collected, but as far as i can tell he doesn't seem like he'll mind that much if he drops this one. and since i think who wins this match will come down to who wants it the most, therefore...
roger in five.
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final note: tip of the cap to henin for completing her roland garros three-peat.
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2 comments:
As I'm watching, I'm definitely rooting for Federer, mainly because I can't stand watching Nadal flex all the time. But the true wish I have, is something ridiculous happens in the match, and Federer and Nadal reach boiling point with each other. Afterwards, they both announce in these exact words, "I hate all that man chooses to be (Michael describing Toby)" and proceed to attempt to kill (relatively speaking) each other every time they play again.
haha. pretty ridiculous choi.
but on a serious note.. i hugely underestimated nadal's fervent desire to win this match. in game two of the first set his grimace/scowl showed me everything i needed to know and i knew it was done at that point. also, the forehand return he fired cross court at TMF during the opening game of the match showed it too. rafa showed up as man on a mission, and he was not to be denied.
top three moments defining the match:
(1) game one of set one federer swings rafa out wide and gets a return right at him... has the entire court to hit a forehand.. he shoots it right into the net. if he's on his a game it doesn't happen.
(2) the above-mentioned demonic possession look of nadal in game two of set one. he's not a slow starter by any means.
(3) 5 break points to put himself up 4-2 and Fed can't convert any of them. that took any wind out of the sails that there was. if he gets up in the first set.. he maybe goes on to win. maybe.
so that's really all you need to know. roger didn't play he best and he still looks scared of rafa on clay, which he's not going to be able to do if he's ever going to win the roland garros though.
here's the real question now... rafa v. roger at wimbeldon. things might be very very interesting if we can get that final this year.
we might actually have a real rivalry boiling up here, although not the angry one choi wants as evidenced by rafa's quote saying that he felt sorry for roger afterward because he will not be able to pursue the grand slam this year. sorry choi, doesn't sound like we'll get much bloodshed.... but what we will get is probably 5 years of a great tennis rivalry.
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