Ichiro! Hit! Run!

So steve's boys have locked up the greatest thing from Japan since sushi. Ichiro has been locked up for five years through 2012 for around $90 million. This deal has been raising eyebrows throughout the baseball blogosphere and the sports world. Early reports stated that the deal was going to be somewhere in the 5 year $100 million range (which really the deal is in actuality - but that has to do with the interest accumulated on deferred money, and we won't get into that)... and these reports prompted the following comment by David Samson, president of the Florida Marlins:

"[it's] the end of the world as we know it... it'll take the sport down, that contract."

a bit ridiculous and over-dramatic as you ask me. Sure $18 million to a player who is currently 33 (34 this october) and hits lead-off may seem a bit absurd. But let's look at some facts:

(1) At the plate: In 2001, Ichiro was the AL MVP. That year he hit .350 with a .381 OBP. Since then his batting average has ranged from a low of .303 (2005) to a high of .372 (2004) and his OBP has ranged from .350 to .414 ('05 and '04 again respectively). So his numbers are steady... and this year so far is no difference. He is currently hitting .354 with an OBP of .405. Clearly his ability to get on base is still right where it was when he was an MVP.

(2) In the field: Since coming to Seattle he has won 6 gold gloves. '01-06 he's swept the table in the AL. And there is no reason to believe this is going to change. A few weeks ago there was an article run on espn about outfield arms that third-base coaches take note of. Ichiro was right up there at the top of the list. And it goes without saying that his outfield play is beautiful and fundamentally perfect. So he's going to take runs away.

(3) Runs win games: Rather than reproduce it here I will direct you to the following article about Ichiro's run creation ability (this essentially values his ability to get on base and his base-running ability) at USS Mariner: Click Here. The basic jist of the article is this though. Since 2004, Ichiro generates a weighted average of 128 runs per season. In the past four years this number is better than any other CF - Beltran and Sizemore are the closest two. This season alone he is on pace for 140+ runs created.

So looking at these stats alone maybe Mr. Samson should reconsider his comments. And this isn't even taking into account the marketing factor surrounding Ichiro. Mind that the Mariners are a West Coast time and thus have a link to Japan. So having one of Japan's greatest players playing there certainly is good for the team.

One last thing... maybe people want to raise a fuss because the deal will end up with the M's paying a 39 year old close to $20 million in 2012. Isn't this a huge risk? Yeah, of course it's a risk. But so was Rick Ankiel and Cardinal's fans know how that turned out. Joking aside though, there is always risk in signing players to long-term deals. But it looks to me as if Ichiro takes pretty good care of his body. And the fact that from '01-'06 he has averaged 159.5 games per season says just about everything you need to know.

So yeah... is this deal going to hurt the game? No, not at all. In fact you might even be able to make a case that the Mariners got a pretty good deal. Especially as A-Rod looks on the verge of opting out of his deal and signing a $30 million per year deal... that'll set the bar in the market high.